Going...
A personal view from Copenhagen
The high level segment has started today, which means a lot of security and a lot of cameras and long queues outside the centre (some have waited for 10 hours). Access to the conference is now limited for the NGOs.
In the side events on science there is consensus that the climate is changing. Although we do not exactly know how the future climate will be, we know that it is warming and will continue to warm to potentially dangerous levels. There are potential tipping points ahead of us: We are flying blind into a wall, as a speaker phrased it. So there is no doubt: action is urgently needed and the number of people who doubt this fact is insignificant here I guess. The translation of complex science into policy is then called the 2-degree-target (not “limit” by the way).
In the side events on mitigation targets that are needed to stay well below 2 degree of warming it is clearly shown that the current pledges of the industrialized countries are not sufficient.
going...
In the side events on transition pathways to a low-carbon-society, renewable energy and technological potential the good news is that there is a bright green future (although most say that one might have to accept carbon capture and storage and/or nuclear power). The technology is available or will most probably be in the future
In the side events on the cost of climate change mitigation the economists show that the costs would not exceed some tiny percent of the GDP, which means a delay in economical growth of only some months (which is important, if you like the idea of growing ever more).
So here is the logic: climate change can be dangerous, if we do not act now, it is feasible and we can afford it. Let’s be reasonable and “seal the deal”.
But then in the negotiation here at COP this does not seem to be known. Is this the science-policy gap? Or is it the science-general public gap? Do these people not have a conscience? How about the ethics of such behavior and the responsibility of these delegates?
gone.
As I am now closely watching the politicians act, I understand a little bit better why they do not act according to the logic laid out above: they are all under a constraint, they all represent the meaning of their government. Many of them really care (some do not). They work long days since months, the sessions last late into the night. They talk in the plenum, in contact groups, informally and bilateral, and then are consulted by the heads of state. They discuss the framework of the decision, the complex details and the shared vision. So it should work? Now again, I do not understand, because so far, the countries follow their own agendas, there is not much movement. Maybe all the Excellencies present now will make the deal, but I am not sure if it will be a/the real deal. I hope. It could be!
(Thank you to Belalonbg Jantan, chrissy575 and flikkerphotos from Flikr for their wonderful photos)
Waiting. Amny people are hanging around in front of the Screens to see what is going on elsewhere in the Bella centre. The area has become a high security zone, helicopters above and guards around us.
Obama is speaking now in the plenary, which is only open to few wearing “silver badges”. The participitation of NGOs has been reduced from several thousands to 300 toward the end of the conference. Instead the place is full of people from the press.
Heads of states and governments talk, then the ministers (“sherpas”), then heads of delegation, but also the work on the text goes on.
It does not seem probable that there will be a result today. Probably negotioations will go on at all levels until late into the night or tomorrow. And then, hopefully there will be a good outcome.
Obama said that it is time for action now.
We wait.
Thank you, Christiane, for this update.
I hope Obama can convince them to take the right action now. Although I think a lot of the power of the presidency has been sapped by commercial might.